As U.S.–China trade tensions intensify, some cybersecurity and national security experts are expressing concern that economic retaliation could move beyond tariffs and into cyberspace, reports The Register.
The latest round of tensions began with a 104% tariff hike from the U.S., followed by an 84% increase from China. President Trump then raised rates again to 125%, signaling a willingness to escalate. As the dispute deepens, experts caution that China may pivot to cyber retaliation instead of additional economic measures.
These concerns are rooted in past behavior linked to Chinese state-sponsored threat groups, particularly those involved in the so-called "typhoon" campaigns. Volt Typhoon, a long-running espionage operation attributed to Beijing, has reportedly infiltrated critical U.S. infrastructure and remains dormant, potentially waiting for a trigger event. Security analysts warn that these operations have laid the groundwork for more destructive attacks, not just surveillance.
While the threat of state-backed cyber retaliation looms, financially motivated attackers are already capitalizing on the confusion created by shifting tariff policies. In recent weeks, malicious actors have ramped up phishing and fraud campaigns tied to import and shipping themes. These scams often involve fake messages claiming recipients must pay new tariffs to release held packages, luring victims to fraudulent sites that steal credentials and payment information. AI-enabled fraud tools appear to be making these scams more targeted and harder to detect.
Some schemes go beyond digital deception and incorporate real-world social engineering. Criminals have been observed sending tailored invoices referencing recent tariff changes or even dispatching individuals to collect “missed” tariff payments in person, exploiting victims’ expectations around package deliveries.
